On Managing Transition
Henneberg, Sabina. Managing Transition: The First Post-Uprising Phase in Tunisia and Libya. University of Cambridge ESOL Examinations, 2020. pp. 275. Cloth.
This is an important addition to the comparative politics literature as it pertains to regime change. Sabina Henneberg offers a study comparing the period immediately after the 2011 revolutions in both Libya and Tunisia. While most studies up to this point have really focused on structural factors, Henneberg is most interested in individual agency.
Her study essentially gives the bulk of its attention to the period between 2011 and 2014, with a single chapter examining the long-term effects of transition in Libya and Tunisia until 2019. Given the time period, she is most interested in the first transitional government in each of these cases. That is, the new, unelected administrations that immediately rose to power following the Libyan and Tunisian revolution. The period ends with the promulgation of a new constitution in Tunisia, and the outbreak of civil war in Libya.
Henneberg’s ultimate argument is that while structures and starting points are important to the trajectory of individual states, the actual actions taken by provisional governments are really significant to determining outcomes. Tunisia’s transition to democracy was (perhaps temporarily) successful because of a commitment to consensus between those establishing the Tunisian constitution. When a violent spiral began to take place, provisional leaders took a step back, consulted with earlier leaders, and worked together to build a national vision that could appeal to nearly all people. In Libya, on the other hand, there was no spirit of compromise and, to this day, the country remains wholly split and without a functioning state. This was exacerbated by Libya’s starting point, which saw the rapid proliferation of militias, powerful officers becoming warlords, and other armed groups seizing power.
The argument seems obvious, but it is nice to see Henneberg pushing back against what can so often feel like political science’s natural determinism. Although her emphasis here is on Libya and Tunisia—which is the reason I picked up this book—it will also speak to political scientists studying regime change in other regions of the world.
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